The Dunning-Kruger Effect
Knowing our limits
A well-known study, Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments, explored the disturbing likelihood that the more we tend to think ourselves experts on a subject, the less likely we are to be correct. The opposite is also true: the less we think we know about any subject, the more expert we probably are. This phenomenon is called the Dunning-Kruger Effect, named after David Dunning and Justin Kruger.
Here’s the background. When captured, a bank robber, McArthur Wheeler, was dismayed that police had been able to identify him, even if they did use the bank camera. Police shouldn’t have been able to identify him because he “Wore the juice”. The juice should have hidden his ide When police pressed him further about the juice he explained that he’d covered himself with lemon juice. As you may know, lemon juice is used in invisible ink. So, if he was covered in the juice - invisible ink - he should have been invisible. He assumed a level of expertise about lemon juice he didn’t possess.
We shouldn’t be too quick to laugh at poor Mr. Wheeler. Dunning and Kruger’s research suggested that humans routinely do this.
As many Living Wills and Medical Powers of Attorney as I’ve done, I realize I’m still learning. Still, it’s hard when a patient or family member - feeling a sense of expertise - won’t listen to feedback from someone who’s done these and seen the results of advance directives done poorly. Or, the sometimes tragic results when patients ignore doctors suggestions. Often, they are readmitted in worse condition than when they insisted on leaving. If they survive at all. But, of course, they know best, they have to go home and take care of a business matter, or they have to _________ ___ ___ .
With Mr. Wheeler’s voice of surprise they say, *But, I was wearing the juice.
A further note on the Dunning-Kruger Effect.
Recently, called into question the Dunning-Kruger Effect essentially saying it didn’t require any psychological explanation. Statistical models show that this is all just an artifact. From what I’ve read, new infomrmation suggests we all think we know lots of things about everything. That hasn’t changed. But, it now seems that the TRUE experts are still TRUE experts in their fields. But, outside their areas of expertise? Yup, they’re just like the rest of us saps. They get bit by the lemon juice ignorance mistake just like we do.
- Wikipedia, Dunning–Kruger effect
- Psychology Today, Dunning-Kruger Effect
- Poundstone, William: Medium, June 14, 2016
- Link [to the actual article](http://www.sakkyndig.com/psykologi/artvit/dunning1999.pdf
- Video from TED-Ed: Why incompetent people think they’re amazing
The updated research is here:
- This isn’t reflective of the new Dunning-Kruger Effect research but it deals with the Dunning-Kruger in Health concerns. Add this to the New research and it’s quite relevant. Overconfidence in Managing Health Concerns: The Dunning–Kruger Effect and Health Literacy. From the abstract: Results support the presence of a DKE (Mike Davis note: DKE=Dunning-Kruger Effect) for health literacy; individuals with low health literacy reported equal or greater confidence in health knowledge than individuals with higher health literacy. Individuals with lower health literacy reported more problematic engagement in health behaviors. Low health literacy can impact engagement in health behavior and effect health outcomes, but individuals may not realize this deficit. Implications for clinical intervention include the need to address cognitive bias and enhance motivation to participate in health literacy interventions.
- A Statistical Explanation of the Dunning–Kruger Effect
- The Dunning-Kruger effect revisited | Nature Human Behaviour